Hungary’s economic outlook in 2025 reflects a promising trajectory, driven by strategic investments and favorable macroeconomic trends. The Hungarian Central Bank (MNB)’s December 2024 Inflation Report highlights several key developments set to shape the nation’s economic landscape in the coming years.
MNB’s Inflation Report, December 2024
Hungary is expected to experience significant economic growth in 2025, with GDP projected to expand between 2.6% and 3.6%. This acceleration is fueled by major investments from global corporations such as BMW, BYD, and CATL, which are anticipated to commence production in 2025. These initiatives alone are expected to contribute 0.6 percentage points to the GDP growth, with ripple effects extending through their supplier chains.
Inflation is forecast to remain within the central bank’s tolerance band for most of 2025, marking a stable economic environment. While a temporary rise in inflation is anticipated in early 2025, the consumer price index is expected to sustainably reach the 3% target from 2026 onward. This reflects the continuation of Hungary’s ongoing disinflationary trend.
Rising real wages are expected to provide strong support to household consumption, serving as a critical driver of economic growth in both 2025 and the years that follow. The increase in purchasing power is likely to fuel domestic demand, further stabilizing the economy.
The investment cycle is projected to take a favorable turn in 2025, largely due to the realization of previously postponed projects. Additionally, government economic stimulus measures will play a pivotal role in fostering growth, making 2025 a milestone year for Hungary’s investment landscape.
Exports are poised for substantial growth, supported by the commencement of production in the automotive and battery manufacturing sectors. The large-scale investments from key players like BMW and CATL are expected to enhance Hungary’s export capabilities, contributing to long-term economic prosperity.
While the immediate impact of major investments will peak in 2025, their contributions to GDP growth are expected to extend over the next decade. Projections indicate that GDP growth rates for 2026 and 2027 will stabilize between 2.5% and 3.5%, with sustained benefits continuing through 2030, albeit at a gradually moderating pace.
Hungary’s economic outlook for 2025 reflects a robust and dynamic trajectory, driven by strategic investments, stable inflation, and supportive government policies. The combination of rising household consumption and export growth underscores the resilience and potential of the Hungarian economy in the face of global challenges.
As outlined in the Hungarian Central Bank’s December 2024 Inflation Report, the upcoming year presents a pivotal opportunity for growth and development, ensuring a prosperous future for the nation.
Source: Hungarian National Bank (December 2024 Inflation Report)
For more insights and updates on Hungary’s economic and trade developments, stay connected with the Office of Commercial Affairs, Royal Thai Embassy in Budapest.