Thailand’s Economic Overview: Q1 2024 Growth, Trade, and Tourism Highlights

In Q1 2024, the Thai economy exhibited moderate growth despite global challenges. The GDP growth for this quarter was recorded at 1.5%, while inflation remained low at 0.8%, indicating controlled price levels. The unemployment rate was also impressively low at 1.01%, reflecting a relatively stable labor market.

Thai Economy in Q1 2024 and Outlook for the Year

Economic Figures:

Thailand’s Nominal GDP in Q1 2024 was 514.3 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 7,324.3 USD. As of June 2024, the Public Debt to GDP ratio stood at 63.4%, which while high, is manageable under current conditions. International reserves remained robust at 223.3 billion USD (March 2024), providing a buffer against external shocks.

Trade Performance:

The estimated annual trade forecast showed an export value of 285.7 billion USD and an import value of 275.3 billion USD for Q1 2024, resulting in a trade surplus of 10.4 billion USD. This positive trade balance highlights Thailand’s competitiveness in international markets.

Top export destinations in Q1 2024 included the USA, China, and Japan, with cars, computers, and jewelry among the top export products. Thailand’s top imports originated from China, Japan, and the USA, with crude oil and electrical integrated circuits being the leading imports.

Tourism Recovery:

The tourism sector continued its post-pandemic recovery with 9.37 million international tourist arrivals in Q1 2024, compared to 28.15 million in the whole of 2023. Tourists from China, Malaysia, and Russia made up the largest groups, indicating renewed interest in Thailand as a travel destination.

2024 Economic Forecast:

Looking ahead, economic agencies predict growth between 2.0% and 3.0% for 2024. Key forecasts include:

• NESDC (May 2024): 2.0% – 3.0%
• Bank of Thailand (BOT): 2.6%
• World Bank: 2.8%
• IMF: 2.7%

Conclusion and Outlook:

Thailand’s economy in Q1 2024 shows signs of gradual recovery, led by strong tourism numbers, stable inflation, and robust international reserves. However, ongoing challenges such as global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and potential inflationary pressures remain key risks to watch in the coming months.

The growth forecast for 2024 is optimistic, supported by a recovering global economy, domestic demand, and government policies aimed at boosting growth. Nevertheless, external risks such as global financial system volatility and disruptions in global trade could pose challenges to sustained economic recovery.

Sources:

• Department of International Economic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• Ministry of Tourism & Sport
• The National Economic and Social Development Council
• Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce