Thailand’s gross domestic product grew 2.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, showing a steady recovery from the pandemic, supported by an increase in agricultural production, private consumption, and exports. The most important factor is the revival of tourism, following the easing of COVID-19 control measures and the reopening of Thai borders to international tourists in the 2nd quarter. However, the 2022 GDP growth projection is cut to 2.7-3.2%, due to global inflation, which slows down construction and machinery investment, and uncertainties over the war in Ukraine. As a consequence, interest rate hikes could be expected from a current rate of 0.75%.
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On 15 August 2022, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) announced the Thai Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2022 and the economic projection for 2022 as follows:
The Thai Economy in the second quarter of 2022 expanded slightly by 2.5% (%YoY), accelerating from a 2.3% growth in the previous quarter. Seasonally adjusted, the economy increased by 0.7% from the first quarter of 2022 (%QoQ sa). Therefore, The Thai economy expanded by 2.4% in the first half of 2022 from the same period of the previous year (January – June 2021).
The Thai economy in 2022 is projected to expand in the range of 2.7 – 3.2% (with a midpoint of 3.0%) mainly supported by;
This change from May 2022 estimation is in line with the major economies’ economic slowdown, especially the USA, Eurozone, and Japan as affected by the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 situation in China.
Headline inflation is estimated to be in the range of 6.3 – 6.8%. The adjustment is influenced by the revised oil prices, resulting in higher energy and food prices.
Total investment is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2022. Private consumption expenditure and private investment are expected to increase by 4.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, public investment is projected to increase by 2%.
The export value of goods in US Dollar terms is anticipated to increase by 7.9%. Besides, the export of goods and services is estimated to increase by 9.0%.
The current account balance is projected to record a deficit of 1.6% of GDP.