Thai Chamber of Commerce expects Thai GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2021

With the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions and Thailand’s reopening in November, an estimated 200,000 to 300,000 international tourists are likely to arrive this year, bringing in around 12 billion baht in revenue.

In line with the government’s measures to stimulate economic activities, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC)’s economic forecasting center has published an economic forecast, expecting the Thai economy to grow by 1.5 percent this year.

Dr. Thanavath Phonvichai, President of UTCC and chief advisor to UTCC’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF), said the Thai economy had already passed rock bottom and is recovering. He expected the improvement within Q2/2022.

200,000-300,000 incoming foreign tourists are expected

Despite the removal of Coronavirus-related restrictions and the country reopening international tourists, COVID-19 infection levels have not dramatically increased, according to Dr. Thanavath. This year, 200,000 to 300,000 foreign tourists are expected to visit Thailand, generating around 12 billion baht in revenue.

He also acknowledged an increase in money circulation as a result of the government’s economic stimulus efforts, such as the Shop Dee Mee Khuen (ช้อปดีมีคืน) tax rebate program and the Co-pay subsidized purchase campaigns (เราเที่ยวด้วยกัน, ม. 33 เรารักกัน, and คนละครึ่ง). Along with these initiatives, income from the export sector, which is predicted to grow by 16.5% this year, will contribute to a 1.5% growth in the Thai economy in 2021.

Thailand’s GDP would expand by 4.2% in 2022

Dr. Thanavath forecasted that Thai GDP would grow by 4.2% in 2022, putting it in the 3.6-4.5% range. As the industrial sector has recovered, growth will be more visible in the second half of 2022. In 2022, over 5 million foreign tourists are expected to arrive, generating roughly 300 billion THB for the economy as well as benefiting industrial and service sector employment. Meanwhile, due to the high base value in 2021, exports are predicted to expand by 5.4% in 2022.

He advised that the government shall continue to offer stimulus measures and allocate at least 500 billion THB to these projects within the first half of 2022. Moreover, he mentioned that the funding for Co-pay projects could have been granted an additional 1,500 THB per person within Q1/2022 to stimulate the economy.

Source: National News Bureau of Thailand